How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 285 | 0.884 | 60% |
| Base rate | 285 | 1.052 | 46% |
| Recent form | 285 | 0.936 | 59% |
A draw is its own outcome: the model has a band around an even contest in which a draw is the likeliest single result, fit on the tuning seasons.
The gap between the top clubs and the rest is wide in the WSL, so ratings spread further than in the men's game.
There are no bookmakers' odds in the history, so there is no market comparison.
Whether the bottom side goes down directly or into a play-off depends on the season's rules; the odds are for finishing bottom.