10 May 2026 · Arena Fonte Nova
Cruzeiro at Bahia
Cruzeiro 2 – 1 Bahia · Cruzeiro won. We had Bahia at 48.3%, a draw at 28.5% and Cruzeiro at 23.2%.
Ratings before the game: Bahia 1533, Cruzeiro 1530, plus 95 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 26°C, wind 21 km/h (gusts 42).
The betting market (closing odds) had Bahia at 48.0%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Bahia | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 48.3% | 28.5% | 23.2% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 46.8% | 27.7% | 25.4% |
| Polymarket | 48.7% | 26.6% | 24.6% |
| Kalshi | 46.5% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Cruzeiro LWWWL, Bahia LWLDD.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Bahia at Cruzeiro | 2–3 | 54% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Cruzeiro at Bahia?
Cruzeiro won 2–1 on 10 May 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Cruzeiro 23%.