10 May 2026 · Arena do Grêmio
Flamengo at Grêmio
Flamengo 1 – 0 Grêmio · Flamengo won. We had Grêmio at 27.9%, a draw at 30.0% and Flamengo at 42.1%.
Ratings before the game: Grêmio 1507, Flamengo 1656, plus 95 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 12°C, wind 19 km/h (gusts 40).
The betting market (closing odds) had Grêmio at 23.7%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Grêmio | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 27.9% | 30.0% | 42.1% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 23.3% | 28.0% | 48.8% |
| Polymarket | 22.4% | 28.4% | 49.3% |
| Kalshi | 22.6% | 27.5% | 50.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Flamengo WWWWD, Grêmio DDLWD.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | Grêmio at Flamengo | 1–3 | 77% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Flamengo at Grêmio?
Flamengo won 1–0 on 10 May 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Flamengo 42%.