Week 11 · 14 Nov 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Arizona State at UCF
We have UCF at 41.2% and Arizona State at 58.8%.
Ratings going in: UCF 1861, Arizona State 1967, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 18°C, wind 14 km/h (gusts 16).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | UCF | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Polymarket | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Kalshi | 59.0% | 41.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Arizona State WLWLW, UCF LLWLW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Arizona State at UCF?
PodiumOracle's model makes Arizona State the favourite at 59%, with UCF at 41%. The markets give Arizona State 41% on Polymarket, 41% on Kalshi and 40% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 59% favourite still loses 41% of the time.
When and where is Arizona State at UCF?
14 November 2026, at FBC Mortgage Stadium (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.