Week 11 · 14 Nov 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium
Duke at Miami
We have Miami at 86.8% and Duke at 13.2%.
Ratings going in: Miami 2401, Duke 2119, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 23°C, wind 17 km/h (gusts 17).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Miami | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| Polymarket | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| Kalshi | 83.0% | 17.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Duke LLWWW, Miami WWWWL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Duke at Miami?
PodiumOracle's model makes Miami the favourite at 87%, with Duke at 13%. The markets give Miami 84% on Polymarket, 84% on Kalshi and 82% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 87% favourite still loses 13% of the time.
When and where is Duke at Miami?
14 November 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.