Week 11 · 14 Nov 2026 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Fresno State at Texas State
We have Texas State at 72.1% and Fresno State at 27.9%.
Ratings going in: Texas State 1913, Fresno State 1794, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 16°C, wind 16 km/h (gusts 29), rain 2.8 mm/h.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Texas State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| Polymarket | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| Kalshi | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Fresno State WLLWL, Texas State LWWLW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Fresno State at Texas State?
PodiumOracle's model makes Texas State the favourite at 72%, with Fresno State at 28%. The markets give Texas State 77% on Polymarket, 76% on Kalshi and 76% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 72% favourite still loses 28% of the time.
When and where is Fresno State at Texas State?
14 November 2026, at Bobcat Stadium (TX) (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.