Week 11 · 15 Nov 2026 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Troy at South Alabama
We have South Alabama at 62.3% and Troy at 37.7%.
Ratings going in: South Alabama 1640, Troy 1598, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 11°C, wind 10 km/h (gusts 27).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | South Alabama | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 58.3% | 41.8% |
| Polymarket | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Kalshi | 58.0% | 42.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Troy WLLWL, South Alabama WWLLL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Troy at South Alabama?
PodiumOracle's model makes South Alabama the favourite at 62%, with Troy at 38%. The markets give South Alabama 58% on Polymarket, 59% on Kalshi and 58% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 62% favourite still loses 38% of the time.
When and where is Troy at South Alabama?
15 November 2026, at Hancock Whitney Stadium (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.