PodiumOracle Formula 1

Round 21 · 22 Nov 2026 · Las Vegas Strip Street Circuit

Las Vegas Grand Prix

Each driver's chance from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix, using ratings fit only on earlier results. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's. In the championship, Andrea Kimi Antonelli is 100% to win the title.

The field

DriverWinPodium
Andrea Kimi Antonelli29%73%
Max Verstappen25%68%
Charles Leclerc12%40%
George Russell10%33%
Lando Norris9%30%
Lewis Hamilton7%26%
Oscar Piastri4%14%
Isack Hadjar3%12%
Liam Lawson<1%1%
Carlos Sainz<1%1%
Oliver Bearman<1%<1%
Rafael Camara<1%<1%
Nico Hülkenberg<1%<1%
Alexander Albon<1%<1%
Sergio Pérez<1%<1%
Arvid Lindblad<1%<1%
Pierre Gasly<1%<1%
Fernando Alonso<1%<1%
Valtteri Bottas<1%<1%
Franco Colapinto<1%<1%
Lance Stroll<1%<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto<1%<1%

Chance of winning the World Championship

Every driver

DriverPointsProjectedTitle chance
Andrea Kimi Antonelli390428100%
Max Verstappen2793150%
George Russell2622910%
Lewis Hamilton2612880%
Charles Leclerc2492800%
Lando Norris2462740%
Oscar Piastri1521750%
Isack Hadjar1221440%
Liam Lawson89970%
Pierre Gasly42460%

Calendar

Questions and answers

Who will win the Las Vegas Grand Prix?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli is the favourite at 29%, ahead of Max Verstappen (25%), Charles Leclerc (12%) and George Russell (10%), from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix with PodiumOracle's ratings, updated 12 November 2026. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's.

Who is favoured to win the 2026 World Championship?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, at 100%, ahead of Max Verstappen (0%) and George Russell (0%), from 10,000 simulations of the remaining races with the real points system, updated 12 November 2026.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Formula 1 predictions?

On 68 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 31% of the time in fields of about 21, and it gave the eventual winner 23% on average. Its log loss was 1.783, against 3.022 for treating every driver as equal and 1.986 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished events, its log loss was 1.712 against Polymarket's 1.202 over 21 races and 1.702 against Kalshi's 1.148 over 42 races (lower is better).