14 Nov 2026 · Kaseya Center
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
We have Miami Heat at 54.4% and Cleveland Cavaliers at 45.6%.
Ratings going in: Heat 1472, Cavaliers 1554, plus 55 for playing at home.
Who is playing: CLE +2.0 game score against its usual (without Sam Merrill); MIA +9.1 game score against its usual. Net 57 rating points to MIA.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Heat | Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Polymarket | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Kalshi | 54.0% | 46.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Cleveland Cavaliers LWLLW, Miami Heat LWLWW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2026 | Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers | 39% | 61% |
| 29 Mar 2027 | Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers | 39% | 61% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat?
PodiumOracle's model makes Miami Heat the favourite at 54%, with Cleveland Cavaliers at 46%. The markets give Miami Heat 53% on Polymarket and 55% on Kalshi. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 54% favourite still loses 46% of the time.
When and where is Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat?
14 November 2026, at Kaseya Center. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.