4 Oct 2026
Illawarra Hawks at South East Melbourne Phoenix
Hawks 96 – 113 Phoenix · South East Melbourne Phoenix won. We had South East Melbourne Phoenix at 61.3% and Illawarra Hawks at 38.7%.
Ratings before the game: Phoenix 1503, Hawks 1483, plus 60 for playing at home.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Phoenix | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Polymarket | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Kalshi | 59.5% | 40.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Illawarra Hawks LLLW, South East Melbourne Phoenix WLLL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Illawarra Hawks at South East Melbourne Phoenix | 120–110 | 35% |
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2026 | South East Melbourne Phoenix at Illawarra Hawks | 44% | 56% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Illawarra Hawks at South East Melbourne Phoenix?
South East Melbourne Phoenix won 113–96 on 4 October 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave South East Melbourne Phoenix 61%.