12 Nov 2026
Melbourne United at Adelaide 36ers
We have Adelaide 36ers at 52.9% and Melbourne United at 47.1%.
Ratings going in: 36ers 1506, United 1546, plus 60 for playing at home.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | 36ers | United |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Polymarket | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Kalshi | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Melbourne United LWWWW, Adelaide 36ers WLWLW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Adelaide 36ers at Melbourne United | 97–95 | 42% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Melbourne United at Adelaide 36ers | 96–91 | 42% |
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2027 | Adelaide 36ers at Melbourne United | 36% | 64% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Melbourne United at Adelaide 36ers?
PodiumOracle's model makes Adelaide 36ers the favourite at 53%, with Melbourne United at 47%. The markets give Adelaide 36ers 42% on Polymarket, 41% on Kalshi and 40% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 53% favourite still loses 47% of the time.
When and where is Melbourne United at Adelaide 36ers?
12 November 2026. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.