15 Nov 2026 · Benchmark International Arena
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
We have Tampa Bay Lightning at 66.4% and Detroit Red Wings at 33.6%.
Ratings going in: Lightning 1567, Red Wings 1473, plus 35 for playing at home.
Expected starting goalies: DET (J. Gibson) -0.0 goals saved per start against its usual; TB (D. Hildeby) -0.3 goals saved per start against its usual. Net 10 rating points to DET.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Lightning | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| Polymarket | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| Kalshi | 69.0% | 31.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Detroit Red Wings WLLLL, Tampa Bay Lightning WWWLW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning | 2–4 | 65% |
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings | 57% | 43% |
| 23 Jan 2027 | Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings | 57% | 43% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning?
PodiumOracle's model makes Tampa Bay Lightning the favourite at 66%, with Detroit Red Wings at 34%. The markets give Tampa Bay Lightning 67% on Polymarket and 69% on Kalshi. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 66% favourite still loses 34% of the time.
When and where is Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning?
15 November 2026, at Benchmark International Arena. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.