PodiumOracle Premier League

Football · 2026–27 season

Premier League forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Arsenal, 75%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
21 Nov 2026Fulham at Manchester City10%18%72%
21 Nov 2026Ipswich Town at Tottenham Hotspur17%23%60%
21 Nov 2026Sunderland at Aston Villa16%23%62%
21 Nov 2026Crystal Palace at Coventry City40%29%31%
21 Nov 2026Leeds United at Chelsea23%27%50%
21 Nov 2026Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth22%26%52%
21 Nov 2026Arsenal at Newcastle United61%23%16%
22 Nov 2026Brighton & Hove Albion at Hull City60%23%17%
22 Nov 2026Manchester United at Liverpool19%25%55%
23 Nov 2026Everton at Brentford25%28%47%
27 Nov 2026Chelsea at Nottingham Forest34%29%36%
28 Nov 2026Brentford at Manchester United29%29%42%
28 Nov 2026Coventry City at Leeds United17%23%60%
28 Nov 2026Aston Villa at Ipswich Town59%24%17%
29 Nov 2026Liverpool at Everton46%28%26%
29 Nov 2026Tottenham Hotspur at Sunderland35%29%36%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
8 Nov 2026Aston Villa at Manchester United4–429%
8 Nov 2026AFC Bournemouth at Ipswich Town2–159%
8 Nov 2026Chelsea at Sunderland0–125%
8 Nov 2026Liverpool at Crystal Palace3–152%
8 Nov 2026Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion0–249%
7 Nov 2026Manchester City at Nottingham Forest1–315%
7 Nov 2026Hull City at Arsenal0–185%
7 Nov 2026Newcastle United at Fulham1–129%
7 Nov 2026Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United0–143%
6 Nov 2026Coventry City at Everton1–362%

Chance of winning the title

Every team

TeamWin titleTop fourTop sixRelegated
Arsenal75%>99%>99%0%
Manchester City19%95%99%0%
Brighton & Hove Albion3%73%92%0%
Liverpool3%68%89%0%
AFC Bournemouth<1%18%48%<1%
Aston Villa<1%13%39%<1%
Chelsea<1%13%40%<1%
Brentford<1%8%29%1%
Everton<1%5%18%2%
Manchester United<1%2%10%5%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Premier League title?

Arsenal, at 75%, ahead of Manchester City (19%), Brighton & Hove Albion (3%) and Liverpool (3%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Premier League games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Fulham at Manchester City (21 November 2026): Manchester City 72%, a draw 18%; Ipswich Town at Tottenham Hotspur (21 November 2026): Tottenham Hotspur 60%, a draw 23%; Sunderland at Aston Villa (21 November 2026): Aston Villa 62%, a draw 23%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Premier League predictions?

On 860 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 50% of the time. Its log loss was 1.013, against 1.083 for the base rate and 1.034 for recent form, and 0.993 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.036 against the bookmakers' 1.023 over 260 games, 1.013 against Polymarket's 0.993 over 853 games and 1.027 against Kalshi's 1.012 over 482 games (lower is better).

How are the Premier League predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Premier League title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.