Round 12 · 30 May 2026 · Gabba
Fremantle at Brisbane Lions
Fremantle 103 – 78 Brisbane Lions · Fremantle won. We had Brisbane Lions at 45.5%, a draw at 1.7% and Fremantle at 52.8%.
Ratings before the game: Brisbane Lions 1598, Fremantle 1679, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 18°C, wind 19 km/h (gusts 41).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Brisbane Lions at 60.8%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Brisbane Lions | Draw | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 45.5% | 1.7% | 52.8% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 58.7% | 0.0% | 41.3% |
| Kalshi | 60.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Fremantle WWWWW, Brisbane Lions WWWLL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle | 96–89 | 52% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Fremantle at Brisbane Lions?
Fremantle won 103–78 on 30 May 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Fremantle 53%.