AFL
Hawthorn
Rated 1638 (No. 5 of 18), 15–6–2 this season, 10% to win the premiership.
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from today's ratings.
- 86%
- Finals (top ten)
- 75%
- Past the wildcard round
- 41%
- Top four
- 41%
- Preliminary final
- 20%
- Grand final
- 10%
- Premiership
- 56.5
- Projected points
Rating
Hawthorn is rated 1638, No. 5 of 18. The gap between two ratings is what the model turns into a win chance: about 100 points makes a 64% favourite on a neutral ground.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn | 131–122 | 48% |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Hawthorn at Fremantle | 72–40 | 32% |
Questions and answers
What is Hawthorn's chance of winning the 2027 premiership?
10%, from 10,000 simulations of the next season. Hawthorn is No. 5 of 18 in PodiumOracle's power ratings, updated 12 November 2026.