19 Sep 2026 · M.C.G.
Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn
Brisbane Lions 131 – 122 Hawthorn · Brisbane Lions won. We had Hawthorn at 52.5%, a draw at 0.0% and Brisbane Lions at 47.5%.
Ratings before the game: Hawthorn 1656, Brisbane Lions 1694, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 24°C, wind 10 km/h (gusts 29).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Hawthorn at 47.7%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Hawthorn | Draw | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 52.5% | 0.0% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket | 48.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% |
| Kalshi | 45.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Brisbane Lions WWWLW, Hawthorn WLDWW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | Hawthorn at Brisbane Lions | 58–125 | 56% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn?
Brisbane Lions won 131–122 on 19 September 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Brisbane Lions 48%.