PodiumOracle Eredivisie

Football · 2026–27 season

Eredivisie forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: PSV Eindhoven, 72%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
21 Nov 2026PSV Eindhoven at NEC Nijmegen62%23%15%
21 Nov 2026Excelsior at Feyenoord Rotterdam6%12%81%
21 Nov 2026SC Cambuur at FC Utrecht13%20%68%
21 Nov 2026PEC Zwolle at Telstar25%28%47%
21 Nov 2026Heerenveen at FC Groningen34%29%37%
22 Nov 2026Willem II at FC Twente5%10%85%
22 Nov 2026AZ Alkmaar at Sparta Rotterdam47%28%25%
22 Nov 2026ADO Den Haag at Ajax Amsterdam5%10%84%
22 Nov 2026Fortuna Sittard at Go Ahead Eagles25%28%47%
27 Nov 2026Willem II at FC Groningen12%19%69%
28 Nov 2026Telstar at Excelsior33%29%38%
28 Nov 2026Go Ahead Eagles at PSV Eindhoven5%11%84%
28 Nov 2026Sparta Rotterdam at SC Cambuur36%29%34%
29 Nov 2026FC Utrecht at ADO Den Haag54%26%21%
29 Nov 2026Heerenveen at Fortuna Sittard38%29%33%
29 Nov 2026Ajax Amsterdam at Feyenoord Rotterdam24%28%48%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
8 Nov 2026NEC Nijmegen at FC Utrecht3–227%
8 Nov 2026FC Groningen at AZ Alkmaar3–458%
8 Nov 2026PSV Eindhoven at SC Cambuur5–281%
8 Nov 2026Ajax Amsterdam at FC Twente2–229%
8 Nov 2026Feyenoord Rotterdam at Heerenveen3–521%
7 Nov 2026Go Ahead Eagles at Excelsior1–034%
7 Nov 2026Sparta Rotterdam at ADO Den Haag1–328%
7 Nov 2026Telstar at Fortuna Sittard2–228%
6 Nov 2026PEC Zwolle at Willem II1–129%

Chance of winning the title

Every team

TeamWin titleTop twoRelegation play-offRelegated
PSV Eindhoven72%91%0%0%
Feyenoord Rotterdam14%50%0%0%
Ajax Amsterdam9%35%0%0%
FC Twente4%19%0%0%
AZ Alkmaar1%4%<1%0%
Heerenveen<1%1%<1%<1%
NEC Nijmegen<1%<1%1%<1%
Fortuna Sittard0%<1%1%<1%
FC Utrecht0%<1%2%1%
FC Groningen0%<1%1%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Eredivisie title?

PSV Eindhoven, at 72%, ahead of Feyenoord Rotterdam (14%), Ajax Amsterdam (9%) and FC Twente (4%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Eredivisie games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: PSV Eindhoven at NEC Nijmegen (21 November 2026): PSV Eindhoven 62%, a draw 23%; Excelsior at Feyenoord Rotterdam (21 November 2026): Feyenoord Rotterdam 81%, a draw 12%; SC Cambuur at FC Utrecht (21 November 2026): FC Utrecht 68%, a draw 20%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Eredivisie predictions?

On 726 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 52% of the time. Its log loss was 0.979, against 1.075 for the base rate and 1.007 for recent form, and 0.966 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.002 against the bookmakers' 0.989 over 246 games, 0.995 against Polymarket's 0.986 over 378 games and 1.010 against Kalshi's 1.006 over 322 games (lower is better).

How are the Eredivisie predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Eredivisie title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.