Rugby union · 2026 season over
Super Rugby Pacific forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Hurricanes, 45%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2026 | Chiefs at Hurricanes | 5–60 | 60% |
| 13 Jun 2026 | Blues at Hurricanes | 21–57 | 83% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Crusaders at Chiefs | 12–49 | 66% |
| 6 Jun 2026 | Blues at Crusaders | 31–52 | 77% |
| 6 Jun 2026 | Queensland Reds at Chiefs | 24–46 | 86% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | Brumbies at Hurricanes | 12–66 | 82% |
| 30 May 2026 | Moana Pasifika at Brumbies | 21–19 | 8% |
| 30 May 2026 | Blues at Chiefs | 34–59 | 76% |
| 30 May 2026 | New South Wales Waratahs at Western Force | 25–31 | 69% |
| 29 May 2026 | Hurricanes at Crusaders | 14–47 | 43% |
| 29 May 2026 | Fijian Drua at Queensland Reds | 24–45 | 74% |
| 23 May 2026 | Queensland Reds at Moana Pasifika | 33–31 | 67% |
Chance of winning the Super Rugby title
| Team | Make play-offs | Semi-final | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 99% | 93% | 70% | 45% |
| Chiefs | 97% | 87% | 57% | 28% |
| Crusaders | 90% | 72% | 36% | 16% |
| Brumbies | 71% | 41% | 12% | 3% |
| Blues | 60% | 30% | 9% | 3% |
| Queensland Reds | 59% | 30% | 7% | 2% |
| Western Force | 55% | 26% | 6% | 2% |
| New South Wales Waratahs | 26% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| Highlanders | 18% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Fijian Drua | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 Super Rugby title?
Hurricanes, at 45%, ahead of Chiefs (28%), Crusaders (16%) and Brumbies (3%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Super Rugby Pacific predictions?
On 257 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 71% of the time. Its log loss was 0.613, against 0.678 for the base rate and 0.629 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.609 against Polymarket's 0.583 over 83 games (lower is better).
How are the Super Rugby Pacific predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.