Round 1 · 14 Mar 2026 · S.C.G.
Brisbane Lions at Sydney
Brisbane Lions 60 – 104 Sydney · Sydney won. We had Sydney at 41.3%, a draw at 1.7% and Brisbane Lions at 57.0%.
Ratings before the game: Sydney 1538, Brisbane Lions 1648, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 20°C, wind 10 km/h (gusts 22).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Sydney at 65.8%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Sydney | Draw | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 41.3% | 1.7% | 57.0% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 64.9% | 0.0% | 35.1% |
| Kalshi | 66.0% | 0.0% | 34.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Brisbane Lions L, Sydney W.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Sydney at Brisbane Lions | 83–126 | 50% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions at Sydney | 88–141 | 53% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Brisbane Lions at Sydney?
Sydney won 104–60 on 14 March 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Sydney 41%.