Round 3 · 29 Mar 2026 · M.C.G.
Melbourne at Carlton
Melbourne 100 – 77 Carlton · Melbourne won. We had Carlton at 60.2%, a draw at 1.6% and Melbourne at 38.2%.
Ratings before the game: Carlton 1450, Melbourne 1428, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 19°C, wind 9 km/h (gusts 26).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Carlton at 46.0%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Carlton | Draw | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 60.2% | 1.6% | 38.2% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 45.5% | 0.0% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi | 43.0% | 0.0% | 57.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Melbourne WL, Carlton LW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Carlton at Melbourne | 74–55 | 47% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Melbourne at Carlton?
Melbourne won 100–77 on 29 March 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Melbourne 38%.