Round 12 · 29 May 2026 · M.C.G.
Geelong at Carlton
Geelong 84 – 88 Carlton · Carlton won. We had Carlton at 20.8%, a draw at 1.2% and Geelong at 78.0%.
Ratings before the game: Carlton 1416, Geelong 1697, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 12°C, wind 9 km/h (gusts 16).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Carlton at 23.2%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Carlton | Draw | Geelong |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 20.8% | 1.2% | 78.0% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 23.9% | 0.0% | 76.1% |
| Kalshi | 21.5% | 0.0% | 78.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Geelong LWWWW, Carlton LLLWW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | Carlton at Geelong | 74–107 | 68% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Geelong at Carlton?
Carlton won 88–84 on 29 May 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Carlton 21%.