4 Sep 2026 · M.C.G.
Carlton at Geelong
Carlton 74 – 107 Geelong · Geelong won. We had Geelong at 67.6%, a draw at 0.0% and Carlton at 32.4%.
Ratings before the game: Geelong 1688, Carlton 1616, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 14°C, wind 20 km/h (gusts 42).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Geelong at 64.3%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Geelong | Draw | Carlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 67.6% | 0.0% | 32.4% |
| Polymarket | 63.0% | 0.0% | 37.0% |
| Kalshi | 63.5% | 0.0% | 36.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Carlton WWDWW, Geelong WWWWW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2026 | Geelong at Carlton | 84–88 | 21% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Carlton at Geelong?
Geelong won 107–74 on 4 September 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Geelong 68%.