Round 22 · 7 Aug 2026 · Gabba
Hawthorn at Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn 58 – 125 Brisbane Lions · Brisbane Lions won. We had Brisbane Lions at 56.0%, a draw at 1.7% and Hawthorn at 42.3%.
Ratings before the game: Brisbane Lions 1636, Hawthorn 1644, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 16°C, wind 7 km/h (gusts 15).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Brisbane Lions at 53.1%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Brisbane Lions | Draw | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 56.0% | 1.7% | 42.3% |
| Kalshi | 53.0% | 0.0% | 47.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Hawthorn LWWWW, Brisbane Lions WWWWL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn | 131–122 | 48% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Hawthorn at Brisbane Lions?
Brisbane Lions won 125–58 on 7 August 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Brisbane Lions 56%.