Round 1 · 14 Mar 2026 · Kardinia Park
Fremantle at Geelong
Fremantle 100 – 110 Geelong · Geelong won. We had Geelong at 59.7%, a draw at 1.7% and Fremantle at 38.6%.
Ratings before the game: Geelong 1593, Fremantle 1574, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 21°C, wind 15 km/h (gusts 37).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Geelong at 67.6%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Geelong | Draw | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 59.7% | 1.7% | 38.6% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 68.4% | 0.0% | 31.6% |
| Kalshi | 73.0% | 0.0% | 27.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Fremantle no games yet, Geelong L.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | Geelong at Fremantle | 90–99 | 61% |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Geelong at Fremantle | 106–120 | 51% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Fremantle at Geelong?
Geelong won 110–100 on 14 March 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Geelong 60%.