11 Sep 2026 · Perth Stadium
Geelong at Fremantle
Geelong 106 – 120 Fremantle · Fremantle won. We had Fremantle at 51.0%, a draw at 0.0% and Geelong at 49.0%.
Ratings before the game: Fremantle 1656, Geelong 1705, plus 55 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 19°C, wind 8 km/h (gusts 23).
The betting market (no-vig line) had Fremantle at 64.7%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Fremantle | Draw | Geelong |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 51.0% | 0.0% | 49.0% |
| Polymarket | 67.0% | 0.0% | 33.0% |
| Kalshi | 65.5% | 0.0% | 34.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Geelong WWWWW, Fremantle WLWLL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Fremantle at Geelong | 100–110 | 60% |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Geelong at Fremantle | 90–99 | 61% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Geelong at Fremantle?
Fremantle won 120–106 on 11 September 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Fremantle 51%.