PodiumOracle MotoGP

Round 21 · 21 Nov 2026 · Autódromo Internacional do Algarve

Grand Prix of Portugal sprint

Each rider's chance from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix, using ratings fit only on earlier results. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's. In the championship, Marc Marquez is >99% to win the title.

The field

RiderWinPodium
Marc Marquez31%73%
Jorge Martin16%50%
Marco Bezzecchi16%49%
Ai Ogura14%44%
Pedro Acosta7%24%
Fabio Di Giannantonio6%21%
Raul Fernandez6%22%
Enea Bastianini1%4%
Fermin Aldeguer1%4%
Franco Morbidelli1%3%
Johann Zarco1%2%
Maverick Viñales<1%1%
Brad Binder<1%1%
Jake Dixon<1%1%
Diogo Moreira<1%1%
Iker Lecuona<1%1%

Chance of winning the World Championship

Every rider

RiderPointsProjectedTitle chance
Marc Marquez431468>99%
Jorge Martin371404<1%
Marco Bezzecchi357390<1%
Pedro Acosta3093390%
Ai Ogura2943270%
Fabio Di Giannantonio2823110%
Raul Fernandez2582870%
Alex Marquez1971970%
Francesco Bagnaia1731730%
Enea Bastianini1471680%

Calendar

Questions and answers

Who will win the Grand Prix of Portugal sprint?

Marc Marquez is the favourite at 31%, ahead of Jorge Martin (16%), Marco Bezzecchi (16%) and Ai Ogura (14%), from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix with PodiumOracle's ratings, updated 12 November 2026. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's.

Who is favoured to win the 2026 World Championship?

Marc Marquez, at over 99%, ahead of Jorge Martin (under 1%) and Marco Bezzecchi (under 1%), from 10,000 simulations of the remaining races with the real points system, updated 12 November 2026.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's MotoGP predictions?

On 123 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 37% of the time in fields of about 22, and it gave the eventual winner 24% on average. Its log loss was 1.783, against 3.081 for treating every rider as equal and 2.139 for recent form.