PodiumOracle MotoGP

Round 16 · 3 Oct 2026 · Mobility Resort Motegi

Grand Prix of Japan sprint

Each rider's chance from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix, using ratings fit only on earlier results. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's. In the championship, Jorge Martin is 39% to win the title.

The field

RiderWinPodium
Marc Marquez21%57%
Jorge Martin17%49%
Marco Bezzecchi16%46%
Ai Ogura11%33%
Alex Marquez9%28%
Pedro Acosta8%25%
Fabio Di Giannantonio8%25%
Raul Fernandez4%13%
Francesco Bagnaia3%10%
Fermin Aldeguer1%5%
Johann Zarco1%2%
Fabio Quartararo1%2%
Franco Morbidelli<1%2%
Enea Bastianini<1%1%
Luca Marini<1%1%
Brad Binder<1%1%
Jack Miller<1%<1%
Takaaki Nakagami<1%<1%
Diogo Moreira<1%<1%
Pol Espargaro<1%<1%
Toprak Razgatlioglu<1%<1%
Alex Rins<1%<1%

Chance of winning the World Championship

Every rider

RiderPointsProjectedTitle chance
Jorge Martin30640739%
Marc Marquez29440134%
Marco Bezzecchi26436615%
Pedro Acosta2343214%
Fabio Di Giannantonio2303183%
Ai Ogura2223163%
Raul Fernandez2032791%
Alex Marquez158248<1%
Francesco Bagnaia156228<1%
Fermin Aldeguer1151760%

Calendar