2026 World Championship
The remaining 4 events played 10,000 times with today's ratings and the real points.
Riders
| Rider | Points | Projected | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Marquez | 431 | 468 | >99% |
| Jorge Martin | 371 | 404 | <1% |
| Marco Bezzecchi | 357 | 390 | <1% |
| Pedro Acosta | 309 | 339 | 0% |
| Ai Ogura | 294 | 327 | 0% |
| Fabio Di Giannantonio | 282 | 311 | 0% |
| Raul Fernandez | 258 | 287 | 0% |
| Alex Marquez | 197 | 197 | 0% |
| Francesco Bagnaia | 173 | 173 | 0% |
| Enea Bastianini | 147 | 168 | 0% |
| Fermin Aldeguer | 129 | 150 | 0% |
| Brad Binder | 118 | 134 | 0% |
| Luca Marini | 117 | 117 | 0% |
| Diogo Moreira | 78 | 93 | 0% |
| Franco Morbidelli | 70 | 89 | 0% |
| Johann Zarco | 63 | 81 | 0% |
| Fabio Quartararo | 79 | 79 | 0% |
| Joan Mir | 33 | 33 | 0% |
| Maverick Viñales | 17 | 33 | 0% |
| Iker Lecuona | 18 | 32 | 0% |
| Jack Miller | 31 | 31 | 0% |
| Alex Rins | 29 | 29 | 0% |
| Toprak Razgatlioglu | 18 | 18 | 0% |
| Jake Dixon | 2 | 17 | 0% |
| Augusto Fernandez | 6 | 6 | 0% |
| Pol Espargaro | 5 | 5 | 0% |
| Takaaki Nakagami | 3 | 3 | 0% |
| Somkiat Chantra | 3 | 3 | 0% |
Teams
| Team | Points | Projected | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aprilia Racing | 728 | 795 | 100% |
| Ducati Lenovo Team | 604 | 641 | 0% |
| Red Bull KTM Factory Racing | 427 | 472 | 0% |
| SuperFile Trackhouse MotoGP Team | 373 | 435 | 0% |
| Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team | 352 | 400 | 0% |
| BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP | 344 | 378 | 0% |
| Red Bull KTM Tech3 | 169 | 206 | 0% |
| Honda HRC Castrol | 158 | 173 | 0% |
| Pro Honda LCR | 78 | 93 | 0% |
| Castrol Honda LCR | 63 | 81 | 0% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026 World Championship?
Marc Marquez, at over 99%, ahead of Jorge Martin (under 1%) and Marco Bezzecchi (under 1%), from 10,000 simulations of the remaining races with the real points system, updated 12 November 2026.