Rugby union · 2026–27 season
United Rugby Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the URC title odds. Favourite right now: Glasgow Warriors, 33%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2026 | Leinster at Ospreys | 75% | 3% | 23% |
| 4 Dec 2026 | Dragons at Edinburgh | 20% | 2% | 77% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Bulls at Lions | 56% | 3% | 40% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Stormers at Sharks | 32% | 3% | 65% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Ulster at Cardiff Blues | 29% | 3% | 68% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Connacht at Scarlets | 59% | 3% | 37% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Benetton Treviso at Glasgow Warriors | 7% | 1% | 92% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Munster at Zebre | 74% | 3% | 23% |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Ospreys at Ulster | 23% | 3% | 74% |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Scarlets at Munster | 13% | 2% | 86% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Benetton Treviso at Zebre | 60% | 3% | 37% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Lions at Stormers | 13% | 2% | 85% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Dragons at Cardiff Blues | 16% | 2% | 83% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Bulls at Sharks | 32% | 3% | 64% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Glasgow Warriors at Leinster | 24% | 3% | 74% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Edinburgh at Connacht | 23% | 3% | 75% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | Ulster at Stormers | 7–33 | 81% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Scarlets at Bulls | 26–54 | 93% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Edinburgh at Benetton Treviso | 12–31 | 49% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Sharks at Munster | 15–3 | 38% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Zebre at Dragons | 14–35 | 82% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Cardiff Blues at Ospreys | 26–0 | 25% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Leinster at Connacht | 50–5 | 50% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Lions at Glasgow Warriors | 20–29 | 87% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Ulster at Bulls | 26–34 | 81% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Scarlets at Stormers | 40–52 | 92% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Glasgow Warriors at Benetton Treviso | 24–20 | 72% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Munster at Leinster | 18–24 | 82% |
Chance of winning the URC title
| Team | Make play-offs | Semi-final | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow Warriors | >99% | 81% | 54% | 33% |
| Leinster | 97% | 77% | 50% | 31% |
| Bulls | 98% | 55% | 25% | 11% |
| Stormers | 99% | 60% | 25% | 11% |
| Sharks | 96% | 53% | 24% | 8% |
| Edinburgh | 95% | 29% | 8% | 2% |
| Cardiff Blues | 83% | 25% | 7% | 2% |
| Connacht | 27% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Munster | 28% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Ulster | 13% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 URC title?
Glasgow Warriors, at 33%, ahead of Leinster (31%), Bulls (11%) and Stormers (11%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next United Rugby Championship games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Leinster at Ospreys (4 December 2026): Leinster 75%, a draw 3%; Dragons at Edinburgh (4 December 2026): Edinburgh 77%, a draw 2%; Bulls at Lions (5 December 2026): Bulls 56%, a draw 3%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's United Rugby Championship predictions?
On 342 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 69% of the time. Its log loss was 0.699, against 0.787 for the base rate and 0.747 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.798 against the bookmakers' 0.715 over 38 games and 0.758 against Polymarket's 0.785 over 121 games (lower is better).
How are the United Rugby Championship predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the URC title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.