Rugby union · 2026–27 season
United Rugby Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the URC title odds. Favourite right now: Leinster, 31%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Leinster at Lions | 42% | 3% | 54% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Ospreys at Sharks | 76% | 2% | 22% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Glasgow Warriors at Munster | 56% | 3% | 41% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Bulls at Zebre | 23% | 3% | 75% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Cardiff Blues at Scarlets | 48% | 3% | 48% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Zebre at Cardiff Blues | 86% | 2% | 12% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Stormers at Edinburgh | 44% | 3% | 53% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Connacht at Benetton Treviso | 49% | 3% | 48% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Ospreys at Lions | 77% | 2% | 21% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Scarlets at Dragons | 67% | 3% | 30% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leinster at Sharks | 41% | 3% | 56% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Ulster at Glasgow Warriors | 82% | 2% | 16% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Bulls at Munster | 58% | 3% | 38% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | Dragons at Benetton Treviso | 19–19 | 2% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Stormers at Connacht | 29–15 | 29% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Edinburgh at Ulster | 34–29 | 20% |
Chance of winning the URC title
| Team | Make play-offs | Semi-final | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 85% | 65% | 46% | 31% |
| Stormers | 90% | 63% | 36% | 19% |
| Glasgow Warriors | 82% | 55% | 32% | 17% |
| Bulls | 69% | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Munster | 67% | 34% | 15% | 7% |
| Connacht | 48% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| Cardiff Blues | 66% | 27% | 9% | 3% |
| Edinburgh | 70% | 29% | 10% | 3% |
| Sharks | 28% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| Ospreys | 45% | 14% | 5% | 2% |